Foreign policy bureaucracies and separatists’ revealed preferences: A look at Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria

Separatist leaders in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria - breakaway enclaves in Georgia and Moldova, respectively – openly declare that their ultimate goal is the establishment of a separate state. This study questions whether public statements and official positions are indicative of separatists’ true preferences. Instead, it suggests that in order to capture separatists’ revealed preferences regarding the status of their territory, one can look at the dynamics surrounding the establishment of foreign policy bureaucracies in these enclaves. Specifically, the paper argues that the establishment of complex foreign affairs institutions captures separatists’ revealed preferences. Given the high costs of setting up and operating a complex architecture of foreign affairs in the context of international nonrecognition (or limited recognition), the presence of sophisticated foreign policy bureaucracy (marked by the presence of an office/ministry of foreign relations/external affairs staffed by professional bureaucrats) signals long-term commitment to separate rule. The analysis of the foreign policy bureaucracy in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria reveals great variation in separatists’ preferences: fairly large and professionalised foreign policy bureaucracies in Abkhazia and Transnistria suggest a preference for independence or continued de facto separation; by contrast, a rudimentary foreign policy apparatus in South Ossetia (under conditions of similar available resources) indicates a preference for a status other than independence.