Dynamic Ministerial Portfolio Importance

Survival models of political elites' career paths depend on a variety of biographical, institutional and contextual variables to estimate the hazard of an event such as a resignation or a portfolio reshuffle. Existing studies of ministerial elites have included measures of portfolio importance or salience based on data collected through expert surveys. However these measures are limited by both time and context in so far as a portfolio which is important at one point in time may not be important at another, eg. before or after a crisis. This paper attempt to overcome this hurdle by developing a measure of portfolio importance based on words spoken in parliamentary debates. The efficacy of this approach is considered by including the new measure of portfolio importance in a survival model of ministerial turnover in a single parliamentary democracy, Canada. The approach can then be used in additional cases and research in the fields of ministerial appointment, legislative careers and coalition bargaining in the comparative context.