Modeling the Elite Circulation and Career Patterns in Multilevel Political Systems - Evidence from Poland

We propose a formal model of elite circulation in multilevel political systems, seeking to explain turnover in office, transitions between elective offices available at the local, regional, national and supra-national (EU) level, and incumbency effects. We develop a comprehensive model incorporating the effects of previous electoral experience (accumulated electoral capital), electoral cycle, and candidates' age, assigning probabilities to all kinds of potential transitions (including reelections, retirements, and comebacks after an electoral loss). We use a unique dataset matching candidates across all types of elections held in Poland between 2001 and 2015 to fit the parameters of the model. The extension of the same dataset for the most recent (2018-2019) electoral cycle is used to test the predictions obtained from the main model.