Varieties of Process = Varieties of Outcome?

Policy diversity on the subnational level unfolds under the overarching framework of the respective national state. In the last two decades, studies have sought to trace subnational differences back to economic differences, coalitions, and policy-learning, all of which play out on the political level below the national (e. g. Seitz 2000; Ingold/Fischer 2016; Pattison 2018; Xhardez 2019). Complementary to these explanations, this study sets out to develop a more process-oriented explanation. It shifts the perspective towards divergent decision-making processes that utilize the discretion enjoyed by subnational entities and result in varieties of outcomes. Studying transport infrastructure planning in Germany, this study profits from the presence of a clear policy task set by the national level for the subnational entities. In the context of the preparation of the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan in 2013/2014 the subnational entities were required to hand in proposals for projects to be carried out over the next 15 years. These proposals differed markedly in their extent as well as their composition over transport modes. This permits the analysis of 16 decision-making processes within the same overall framework and responding to the exact same task. Germany, being a country with an unusually dense transport infrastructure, is a suitable case for analysis combining the analytical advantages derived from its federal structure with the high relevance of the policy field for the country. The analysis of transport policy is timely. Transport policy is a core field in the striving for more sustainable societies (Schwedes 2011). The “car-dependent society” (Jeekel 2016) is at the heart of the criticism; a stronger rail orientation has been called for (Banister 2008; Gather 2008; Schiller 2010). Among other measures, this transition demands a new focus in transport infrastructure planning, thus lending pertinence to the policy task studied. Planning being primarily an executive task, subnational bureaucracies assume a crucial role in this process. Building on bounded-rationality as well as the principal-agent model, I test whether the structure of decision-making processes within ministries is well suited to explain differences in outcomes between subnational entities. To this end, I combine document analysis, descriptive statistics and 30 expert interviews with members of the ministerial bureaucracies. This material is analyzed by way of qualitative content analysis. It is scrutinized with regard to process steps and timing, information flows, as well as political influence. This study will contribute to the understanding of bureaucratic politics in federal systems and provide insights on the emergence of policy diversity from a working-level perspective. Thereby it allows drawing informed inspiration from diverse process models as well as hinting at gateways for reform.