Towards Inexperienced Leaders? Changing Prime Ministers’ Political Experiences and Career Profiles in European Democracies

Whereas legislators and ministers have been the core of elite studies in parliamentary democracies, prime ministers have received less attention. This observation applies especially to the study of prime ministers’ career profiles and their political experience prior to entering office. Our article provides empirical evidence on how political experiences and career profiles of prime ministers in Europe have changed over time. We bring together three strands of literature: party government; presidentialization; and political career research. In a nutshell, we argue that the decline of party government and the increase of presidentialization have significantly changed the career profile of prime ministers and their level of political experience. In the past, prime ministers have been dependent on their own party (i.e. in the selection to office and in cabinet decision-making), while in the ‘age of presidentialization’ several large political parties now become dependent on their prime ministers in office (i.e. strong leadership style and public image of prime ministers guarantee high electoral results). Thus, we expect that prime ministers’ profiles have changed from an ‘agent’ to a ‘principal’ ideal-type. Furthermore, we assume that the degree of political experience prior to becoming prime minister has declined over time. We test these assumptions by making use of an original dataset covering 350 prime ministers in 26 European countries between 1945-2019. We not only investigate the overall trends in Europe, but also identify differences and similarities of career profiles and political experiences among prime ministers in ‘old’ Western European, Southern European, and ‘new’ Central Eastern European democracies. The empirical findings of this analysis will have an impact on further research about the future of democratic governance in Europe.